Bitcoin Holds $100K–$110K Range as Volume Drops and Profits Taper Off

Bitcoin's recent dip to $99K found strong support near $98.2K, reaffirming structural stability above the $93K–$100K key supply zone.

Futures liquidations hit $53.8M in 24 hours, flushing out both longs and shorts, while open interest dropped 7% amid volatile headlines.

On-chain transfer volume dropped 32% since May, while spot volume stayed muted during the $111K rally, indicating weaker speculative participation overall.

Bitcoin remains confined within the $100,000 to $110,000 range, reflecting ongoing market caution, weaker profitability, and declining on-chain activity.

Price Rebounds Amid Headlines, But Range Holds

Bitcoin briefly dropped to around $99,000 over the weekend following renewed geopolitical tensions. This move pushed the price just above the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis of $98,200. However, a reversal came swiftly after a wave of de-escalation headlines on Tuesday, pushing Bitcoin back up to $106,000. The rebound brought Bitcoin back into its recent trading range, which has held firm since May 8.

According to Glassnode (@glassnode), Bitcoin’s recent movement confirms that price action remains highly sensitive to macro headlines. The market structure, however, remains intact as long as the price stays above the $93,000–$100,000 support zone. This area, dense in on-chain supply, has been active since Q1 2025 and now serves as a structurally important floor for bulls. A drop below this level could prompt selling from holders with cost bases in this region.

Futures Market Reset and Profitability Slowdown

Glassnode data reveals that the weekend's volatility triggered liquidations on both sides of the futures market. Longs saw $28.6 million liquidated, while shorts recorded $25.2 million. The sudden flush highlights how quickly traders reacted to global headlines. Open interest in BTC terms also fell by roughly 7%, from 360,000 BTC to 334,000 BTC. This drawdown suggests that speculative positioning was cleared, at least temporarily.

Despite the reset, signs of a cooling market are evident. Realized profits over the last 30 days have begun to taper, even after surpassing $650 billion in total profit this cycle. By comparison, the entire 2020–2022 bull market produced $550 billion in realized gains. With the third wave of profit-taking complete, investor activity appears to be slowing.

Transfer volumes reflect the trend. The 7-day moving average of on-chain transfer volume has declined about 32%, from $76 billion in late May to $52 billion. This downturn reflects reduced capital flows on-chain, suggesting lower engagement compared to earlier bullish phases.

Spot and Futures Volume Trends Show Caution

Spot volume during the push to $111,000 failed to match earlier peaks, coming in at $7.7 billion. This figure is notably lower than levels seen during Q2 and Q4 2024 rallies. The lack of spot demand during recent highs reveals reduced speculative participation, a key characteristic of consolidation periods.

In contrast, the futures market has remained more active. Glassnode notes that trading volumes stayed elevated even as prices climbed. However, traders are now showing more restraint. Both the annualized funding rate and the 3-month futures rolling basis have continued to trend downward. This indicates less aggressive long positioning and possibly a rise in arbitrage or short strategies.

The sustained futures engagement without strong directional conviction suggests a broader fatigue across speculative participants. While futures volumes remain elevated, the tone of participation has become more defensive. Caution prevails even as markets appear stable.

Support Holds, but Bullish Breakout Needs Fresh Demand

Bitcoin’s current price range reflects a cooling phase, driven by fading profitability, reduced transfer activity, and softening spot volume. Futures markets remain engaged but less aggressive, showing traders are less confident in short-term bullish continuation. The market is now awaiting new catalysts to regain upward momentum.

Glassnode’s analysis also suggests that holding above the $93,000–$100,000 level is crucial for maintaining the bullish structure. This zone has repeatedly served as a safety net since early 2025. Should this support level fail, capitulation from holders in that band could trigger further downside.

For now, Bitcoin appears to be digesting previous gains. Without renewed investor activity and stronger profitability metrics, a breakout to fresh all-time highs remains unlikely in the short term. The market remains in a consolidation phase, monitoring macro developments and waiting for stronger demand signals.

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