Digital assets demonstrate resilience in turbulent times

In June 2025, the global financial markets are undergoing a severe test. The escalation of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, the intensification of China-U.S. trade frictions, and the turmoil in the Middle East have driven the price of traditional safe-haven assets like gold to soar near $3,450 per ounce. However, Bitcoin has exhibited surprising stability around the $105,000 mark. This "desensitized" performance in the face of geopolitical crises reflects profound changes in the fundamentals of the cryptocurrency market.

I. The Impact of Geopolitical Conflicts Weakens: From Panic Amplification to Risk Isolation

1. The "dulling effect" of conflict impact

On June 13, when the situation in the Middle East intensified, Bitcoin quickly stabilized after a 2% drop within 2 hours, in stark contrast to the 10% single-day plunge during the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022. This improvement in resilience stems from a qualitative change in market structure: data shows that by 2025, the proportion of long-term holders will exceed 70%, while the proportion of speculative chips has dropped to a five-year low. Institutional investors have effectively cushioned the immediate impact of sudden events through the hedging system established in the derivatives market.

2. Paradigm Shift of Hedging Logic

The "digital gold" attribute of Bitcoin is being redefined. With the expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle starting, the negative correlation (-0.72) between Bitcoin and the real yield of 10-year U.S. Treasuries has significantly strengthened, bringing it closer to a "liquidity hedge tool" rather than merely a safe-haven asset. When the auction of U.S. Treasuries on June 1 faced a lack of demand, leading to a surge in real rates, Bitcoin's inverse rise validated this new attribute.

3. Geopolitical premium's "targeted absorption"

The energy supply chain crisis triggered by the Middle East conflict has objectively accelerated the de-dollarization process. Iran's oil exports settled in Bitcoin now account for over 15%, and this penetration into the real economy has partially transformed geopolitical risks into rigid demand for Bitcoin. Data shows that the on-chain transaction volume of wallet addresses in the conflict regions surged by 300% after the event.

2. Nested Game of Macro Cycles: Dual Boost of Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Inflation Relief

1. The certainty dividend of a shift in monetary policy

The market's expectation probability for a rate cut in Q3 has reached 68%, which is directly reflected in the steepening of the Bitcoin term structure: the annualized premium for the June 15 futures contract has risen to 23%, a new high since the 2024 halving. Historical data shows that, on average, Bitcoin's increase reaches 37% in the three months prior to the start of a rate cut cycle, far exceeding gold's 12%.

2. Structural Resolution of Inflation Stickiness

In May, the core PCE price index fell to 2.8% year-on-year, and the supply chain pressure index dropped to pre-pandemic levels. This weakened Bitcoin's anti-inflation narrative but unexpectedly released its "growth-sensitive asset" attribute. The latest financial report from a large tech company shows that the accounting treatment for corporate holdings of Bitcoin has shifted from "intangible assets" to "strategic reserves," marking the beginning of institutions incorporating it into the growth stock valuation framework.

3. The Arbitrage Opportunities from the Divergence of China-U.S. Policies

The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for six consecutive months to 30,000 ounces, while the U.S. Treasury has driven the dollar index down 12% this year through a "controlled devaluation" strategy. This divergence in monetary policy has created a gray channel for cross-border capital to engage in arbitrage through Bitcoin. Data shows that the over-the-counter trading volume of Bitcoin in the China-U.S. trade corridor grew by 470% during the tariff dispute.

3. Deep Changes in Market Structure: From Retail Frenzy to Institutional Pricing

1. The "deleveraging" of position structure

In the 2025 futures open interest contracts, the proportion of hedging positions has for the first time exceeded 60%, and the funding rate for perpetual contracts has remained stable at below 0.01% per day. This change means that the market no longer relies on leveraged funds for support, and the "long and short squeeze" phenomenon common in 2021 has basically disappeared. A large asset management company's Bitcoin ETF has surpassed a management scale of 130 billion USD, and its daily net subscription volume shows a significant negative correlation with the S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX).

2. The "layered reinforcement" of liquidity structure

A major trading platform's institutional custody account balance has surpassed 4 million bitcoins, accounting for approximately 21% of the circulating supply. This type of "cold storage" chips forms a natural price stabilizer, making it difficult for short-term selling pressure to break through key support levels. When panic selling was triggered by tensions in the Middle East on June 14, over $3 billion in buy orders appeared at the $100,000 level, with 90% coming from institutional over-the-counter trading.

3. The "traditional integration" of the valuation system

The 90-day correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 index fell from 0.85 in 2021 to 0.32, while the correlation with the Russell 2000 small-cap stocks rose to 0.61. This shift reflects that the market is reconstructing valuation logic using traditional asset pricing models: Bitcoin's volatility (annualized at 45%) is now close to that of tech growth stocks, significantly lower than the 128% in 2021.

4. Short-term Price Analysis

Bitcoin found support on Friday at the 50-day simple moving average ($103,604), but bulls struggled to push the price above the 20-day exponential moving average ($106,028). This indicates a lack of buying interest at higher levels.

According to the BTC/USDT daily chart, the 20-day moving average is flattening out, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near the midpoint, which does not give a clear advantage to either the bulls or bears. If buyers push the price above the 20-day moving average, the BTC/USDT currency pair may rise to the range of $110,530 to $111,980. Sellers are expected to firmly defend this upper area, but if the bulls gain the upper hand, the currency pair could soar to $130,000.

On the downside, breaking below the 50-day moving average may challenge the key psychological level of $100,000. If this level is broken, the currency pair may drop to $93,000.

The seller is trying to halt the price rebound at the 20-day moving average on the 4-hour chart. If the price drops sharply and falls below $104,000, the short-term advantage will shift to the bears. The currency pair may fall to $102,664 and then to $100,000. Buyers are expected to firmly defend the $100,000 level.

Bulls must push the price to break above the 50-day moving average to gain control. After that, the currency pair could soar to $110,530.

V. Future Path Simulation: Summer Dormancy and Autumn Offensive

1. June to August: Period of consolidation and buildup

The Federal Reserve's policy vacuum may cause Bitcoin to fluctuate in the range of $98,000 to $112,000. The key observation point is whether the July FOMC meeting will release a clear signal for interest rate cuts. Technically, the 200-day moving average (currently at $96,500) will provide strong support. The pulsing impact of geopolitical conflicts remains, but market depth indicators show that the amount of capital required for each 1% price fluctuation has increased to three times that of 2022.

2. November 9-11: The main upward trend starts

Historical seasonal patterns show that the average increase in October reaches 21.89%. Coupled with the Federal Reserve's potential first rate cut, Bitcoin may embark on its journey to challenge $150,000. At that time, the peak of maturing U.S. debt ($6.5 trillion) may force the Federal Reserve to expand its balance sheet, and the secondary release of dollar liquidity will become the best catalyst. The options market has seen a large accumulation of call options expiring in December with a strike price of $140,000.

3. Risk Warning: Regulatory Uncertainty

Regulatory actions against stablecoin issuers may trigger short-term volatility, but in the long run, the normalization of spot ETF approvals will attract over $200 billion of traditional asset management funds into the market. Investors should be cautious of the "Christmas correction" after the surge in November, as historical data shows that the average pullback during this phase in bull market cycles reaches 18%.

Conclusion: The Positioning of Bitcoin in the New Monetary Order

As gold is about to break through $3,500, the U.S. Treasury yield curve continues to invert, and the proportion of RMB cross-border settlements surpasses that of the dollar, we are witnessing the most profound monetary revolution since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system. Bitcoin plays a dual role in this transformation: it is both a beneficiary of the collapse of the old system's credit and a builder of the new order's infrastructure. Its price stability no longer stems from a reduction in volatility but from the reconstruction of underlying value support — evolving from a speculative symbol into a liquidity bridge connecting the real economy. Perhaps, as a well-known investor said: "In the long winter of the reconstruction of the fiat currency order, Bitcoin is proving itself to be the most freeze-resistant seedling."