Geopolitical conflicts escalate, Bitcoin's $95,000 support level is under follow, ETH faces a test at $2,036.

1. Market Observation

Keywords: crude oil, ETH, BTC

The global financial markets experienced significant volatility when they opened on Monday due to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Spot gold prices surged to $3398 per ounce, Nasdaq futures fell by 0.9%, and WTI crude oil prices opened 3.7% higher. Nevertheless, the market's initial reaction was relatively restrained. Analysts predict that if the situation quickly eases, oil prices could retreat to $60 per barrel, but if tensions persist, oil prices could soar to $130 per barrel. Against this backdrop, the movement of the dollar has become the focal point of the market. Despite a short-term boost from safe-haven sentiment, some strategists believe that as the reasons for bearish sentiment on the dollar gradually diminish, a rise in the dollar could become the main trading trend this summer.

Recently, the global financial market has experienced severe fluctuations due to escalating geopolitical conflicts and the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates. Affected by the situation in the Middle East, gold prices surged by 3.17% from June 11 to June 13, but after the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on June 18, gold faced a sell-off, dropping about 0.6% as of June 21. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has shown strong resilience, maintaining a price of 100,000 USD, and has only fluctuated between 100,000 to 110,000 USD in the past 42 days. Some analysts believe that Bitcoin is gradually shifting from a speculative asset to a long-term investment, and its decentralized nature and limited supply characteristics are becoming increasingly attractive amid global uncertainty, potentially making it a new choice for investors as traditional safe-haven assets experience increased volatility.

In an environment of increasing macro uncertainty, Bitcoin has rebounded above $100,000 after dropping below $99,000. Analysts believe there are three possible scenarios for Bitcoin's future trajectory: maintaining the current range and reaching new highs; dropping below the current range to $95,000 and entering a bear market; or testing $95,000 before reclaiming $100,000 and further rising to the $114,000 to $116,000 range. Some analysts have provided specific resistance levels ($104,000, $106,000, $110,000) and support levels ($98,000, $95,000). Additionally, some analyses indicate that if Bitcoin drops below $100,000, it may test $95,000 and the bull market support band again, as Bitcoin has approximately retraced to the bull market support band about 8 times during the 2017 bull market cycle. Furthermore, some analysts suggest that Bitcoin is approaching the key support of the daily EMA-100 moving average, and if the daily closing price drops below $99,000, it may trigger a further decline to the $92,000 to $94,000 range. Additionally, some traders predict that Bitcoin's short-term price target range is $93,000 to $95,000 and warn that rising global geopolitical tensions could lead to further price declines. The lack of interest rate cuts in the U.S. puts pressure on the market, and while global M2 money supply has increased, this is not driven by the U.S. dollar.

In terms of ETH, analysts indicate that ETH has been performing weakly, with its price constrained by a declining trend line, having fallen below the previously important support level of 2378 USD, and showing a bearish technical pattern. Traders are advised to follow its performance at the 2378 USD resistance level; if it cannot break through, it may further decline to the demand levels of 2114 USD and even 2036 USD.

While mainstream cryptocurrencies are consolidating, the altcoin market is also relatively flat. A token called $BlackCoin has emerged on the Solana chain, with its market story revolving around an AI-generated "dark web coin" claimed to be used for shadow markets and illegal trading networks, currently valued at around $1.4 million. Another token related to geopolitical hotspots is $Oil, which positions itself as "digital oil," a concept stemming from renowned economist Peter Schiff's comments about digital oil being easier to create than real oil, currently valued at about $2.9 million. On the Ethereum chain, a speedrun token $ERC-69 has appeared, launched through Klik, inspired by a fictional, AI-created proposal, with its market capitalization once soaring to $11 million.

2. Key Data (as of June 23, 12:00 HKT)

• Bitcoin: $101,351 (Year-to-date +8.43%), Daily Spot Trading Volume $47.847 billion

• Ethereum: $2,239.19 (Year-to-date -32.84%), daily spot trading volume is $24.261 billion

• Fear and Greed Index: 37 (Fear)

• Average GAS: BTC: 0.52 sat/vB ETH: 0.44 Gwei

• Market Share: BTC 64.9%, ETH 8.7%

• Trading volume ranking in the last 24 hours on a certain trading platform: XRP, Bitcoin, ETH, LAYER, SOL

• 24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 1.0825

• Sector performance: SocialFi down 3.2%; DePIN sector down 3.1%

• 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 184,598 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $642 million, including $232 million in BTC liquidations, $188 million in ETH liquidations, and $21.57 million in XRP liquidations.

• BTC medium to long-term trend channel: upper channel line (105463.14 USD), lower channel line (103374.76 USD)

• ETH medium to long-term trend channel: upper channel line (2462.37 USD), lower channel line (2413.61 USD)

*Note: When the price is above the upper and lower bounds, it indicates a medium to long-term bullish trend; conversely, it indicates a bearish trend. When the price is within the range or repeatedly passes through the cost range in the short term, it indicates a bottoming or topping state.

3. ETF Inflows (as of June 20)

• Bitcoin ETF: +6.3658 million USD (net inflow for 9 consecutive days)

• Ethereum ETF: -11.3444 million USD

4. Today's Outlook

• A trading platform will support the Zilliqa network upgrade and hard fork on June 23.

• A trading platform will launch DeLorean (DMC) on June 24.

• SOON (SOON) will unlock approximately 41.88 million tokens on June 23 at 4:30 PM, which is 22.41% of the current circulating supply, valued at about 8.4 million USD.

• Federal Reserve Governor Bowman speaks on monetary policy and the banking sector. (June 23, 22:00)

• Federal Reserve Chairman Powell delivers semiannual monetary policy report testimony before the House Financial Services Committee (June 24, 22:00)

Top 500 Market Cap Gainers Today: FUN Token ( FUN ) up 67.51%, Banana For Scale ( BANANAS 31) up 21.43%, Bubblemaps ( BMT ) up 13.79%, Keeta ( KTA ) up 11.06%, XPR Network ( XPR ) up 10.83%.

5. Hot News

• This week's macro outlook: Trump is looking for trouble everywhere, and Powell will "go to the meeting alone".

• Data: Tokens such as BLAST, VENOM, and SOON will face large unlocks, with BLAST unlocking a value of approximately 22.5 million dollars.

• This week's preview | Powell delivers semi-annual monetary policy testimony; Blast (BLAST) and Venom (VENOM) unlock tokens worth tens of millions of dollars.

• A trading platform has launched Bulla (BULLA), eligible users can claim an airdrop of 750 BULLA tokens.

• A trading platform will launch Humanity Protocol (H)

• Ark sold more than 600,000 shares of Circle stock again on June 20, netting approximately $243 million from the last three sales.

• The Governor of Texas has signed the SB 21 bill, becoming the third state to establish a Bitcoin reserve.

• The giant whale AguilaTrades has once again opened a 20x short position of 1000.82 BTC in the early morning, currently with an unrealized loss of 1.34 million USD.

• Arthur Hayes: The current weakness in the market is temporary, and Bitcoin's status as a safe haven will be unquestionable.

• Suspected Abraxas Capital is currently holding a floating profit of 79.92 million USD by shorting BTC, ETH, and 3 other tokens.

• The Wyoming stablecoin WYST is scheduled to launch on August 20.

• Bloomberg analyst: has raised the probability of the approval of the majority of spot crypto ETFs to 90% or higher.