Market Trading Logic Analysis: Recession Expectations Dominate, Stagflation Risks Emerge

Interest Rate Market Signals

The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield has rapidly declined, widening the gap with short-term rates, while the 10-year yield has fallen below short-term rates, reflecting the market's anticipation of an economic slowdown and expectations that the Federal Reserve will be forced to cut interest rates. The inversion of long-term rates strengthens the warning of a recession.

Liquidity Contradiction

Although the liquidity of the US dollar has marginally improved, market risk aversion has led to a withdrawal of funds from high-risk assets, flowing into the treasury bond market, creating a paradox of "liquidity easing but risk appetite contracting."

The Root of Turbulence in Risk Assets

1. Economic data is weak: consumer confidence has plummeted, the job market is cooling, and along with tariff threats, concerns about a "hard landing" have intensified.

2. AI narrative frustrated: Controversies over technology after Nvidia's earnings report, new developments from OpenAI raise doubts about AI commercialization, and tech stocks, especially the computing sector, faced sell-offs.

3. Chain reaction in the cryptocurrency market: Changes in futures structure weaken arbitrage attractiveness, ETF capital outflows, Bitcoin and US stocks decline in sync, and market sentiment is extremely fearful.

Key Game Points for Next Week

Non-farm payroll data will set the tone for the intensity of the "recession trade". If employment continues to exceed expectations or the manufacturing PMI continues to decline, it will strengthen recession pricing; conversely, it may briefly restore expectations of a "soft landing". Details of tariff policies and statements from Federal Reserve officials may trigger market volatility.

Strategy Recommendations

The focus is on short-term defense, waiting for an opportunity to counterattack. The short-term pressure in the crypto industry comes from the withdrawal of leveraged funds, but regulatory easing and technological innovation still support long-term growth potential. It is recommended to diversify allocations, increase defensive assets, and pay attention to expected adjustments brought about by changes in economic data, interest rates, and policies.

In the long term, Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency industry still have plenty of room for upward movement. The short-term decline is a result of capital seeking safety, and does not indicate a pessimistic view of the industry. Maintain confidence and closely monitor policy regulation trends and industry developments.