Predicted Bitcoin price in August

Bitcoin miners' reserves have steadily increased from July 2 to July 22, reflecting an accumulation trend as the coin surged to a new all-time high of $123,091 on July 14.

At that time, miners seemed very confident in the price increase of Bitcoin, so they held onto their mining rewards with the expectation that the price would rise even higher.

However, since reaching its peak, BTC has struggled to maintain its upward momentum. In response to this, miners have started to unload their holdings to take profits, and this shift could create new resistance for BTC in August.

The rise of Bitcoin temporarily pauses as miners shift from hodl to selling

As the value of BTC started to rise at the beginning of the month, miners on the Bitcoin network also intensified their accumulation activities, as reflected in the increase in the miners' reserve index.

According to data from CryptoQuant, this index – calculated based on the 7-day moving average (SMA 7 days) has increased by 0.05% from July 1 to July 22, peaking at 1.8 million coins.

Bitcoin Miners' Reserves | Source: CryptoQuantThe Miners' Reserves index tracks the total amount of BTC held in wallets associated with mining entities. When this index rises, it indicates that miners are hodling rather than selling, reflecting an optimistic sentiment or expectation that prices will continue to rise.

However, after the price surge of BTC to its peak on July 14 and the subsequent consolidation phase, the optimistic sentiment among miners began to weaken. According to data from CryptoQuant, the miners' Reserve Index has been on a downward trend since July 22, indicating an increase in profit-taking activity or a decline in confidence in the short-term price outlook for BTC.

As miners control a significant portion of the newly issued BTC supply, changes in their behavior can impact price trends. The current decrease in miners' reserves may increase selling pressure, raising the risk of a price correction for BTC in August.

Institutional capital may offset selling pressure from miners in August

In an exclusive interview, Abdul Rafay Gadit – co-founder and CFO at Zignaly stated that the miners' reserve index increased slightly at the beginning of July "is likely just a short-term pause rather than the start of a strong accumulation phase."

"The increase in the reserve index of miners indicates that they are choosing to hold onto BTC, likely waiting for clearer market signals or more favorable price conditions. This is not yet a sign of a large-scale accumulation. Instead, it seems they are strategizing to slow down their selling. If the price of Bitcoin stabilizes or trends upward, we may gradually see accumulation activities return, but for now, they are leaning towards capital preservation rather than making risky bets," he shared.

When asked about the relative impact between the activities of miners and the organizational demand regarding the current price movements of BTC as well as the upcoming prospects, Gadit commented:

"The demand from institutions is the real pillar of the current Bitcoin price structure. Capital flows from ETFs, especially those managed by BlackRock, Fidelity, and Ark, are creating stable structured demand, supporting prices much more effectively than miners reducing their sales. Although miners' behavior contributes to reducing supply pressure in the short term, the real driving force shaping the market direction today is institutional capital, broader participation, and increasing expectations of a more favorable legal environment. In fact, miners are no longer the market leaders but rather the institutions."

With the increasing demand from institutions for BTC — as evidenced by the steady flow of capital into Bitcoin ETFs, any potential selling pressure from miners could be effectively balanced, helping the price to remain stable in August.

According to data from SoSoValue, Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of $237 million just this week, although BTC price was mostly sideways.

Total net inflow of Bitcoin spot ETF | Source: SosoValueThis reinforces Gadit's view that institutional capital, rather than miner activity, is the main driving force supporting BTC prices and may help keep prices stable in the coming month.

Will Bitcoin break out of the sideways trend?

At the time of writing, BTC is trading at $118,411, fluctuating within the range between the support level at $116,952 and the resistance at $120,811. If demand from institutions continues to rise and the overall market sentiment improves, the price of BTC may surpass the resistance level of $120,811 and approach the all-time high in August.

BTC Price Analysis | Source: TradingViewOn the other hand, if selling pressure increases, BTC may break the support level of 116,925 dollars and continue to drop to 114,354 dollars.

Dinh Dinh