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The analysis report recently released by Danske Bank points out that the upcoming U.S. nonfarm payroll data for July is likely to become a key indicator for the U.S. bond market trends next week. The report emphasizes that if labor market data shows weakness, it may increase the pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates in September.
However, this forecast seems to be somewhat at odds with the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation data released on Thursday. The PCE data was slightly higher than market expectations, highlighting the difficulty of keeping the inflation rate around 2%.
Analysts point out that these contradictory economic indicators may pose more challenges for the Fed's decision-making. On one hand, a weak job market may require a more accommodative monetary policy; on the other hand, persistent inflationary pressures call for caution.
Market participants are closely watching these key economic indicators, as they not only affect the bond market but may also have far-reaching impacts on the overall financial market. In the coming days, both investors and policymakers will closely monitor the July non-farm payroll report for more clues about the health of the U.S. economy.