Ethereum (ETH) price prediction: on-chain data reveals a coexistence of long-term bullishness and short-term selling pressure, with $4400 becoming the battleground for bulls and bears.

Ethereum ( ETH ) successfully broke through the long-term resistance level of $4000 and has started a new round of pump, currently trading around $4230, rebounding nearly 180% from the low point of $1500 in May 2025. On-chain analyst CryptoOnChain's latest report points out that the exchange supply ratio ( ESR ) continues to decline, demonstrating long-term confidence, but abnormal data from mainstream CEX platforms exposes short-term sell pressure risks. This article analyzes key on-chain indicators, focuses on the Bull vs Bear Battle, and projects two potential paths for ETH's future.

Ethereum breaks through key resistance, on-chain data reveals market divergence The Ethereum market has unlocked a new round of bullish momentum after decisively breaking through the psychological barrier of $4000. Currently, the second largest cryptocurrency is trading at around $4230, reflecting an increase of about 180% from the market low of $1500 in May 2025. On-chain analyst CryptoOnChain reveals short-term and long-term outlooks for ETH's potential price trajectory based on recent exchange activity data.

Exchange supply ratio ( ESR ) currently key divergence, long-term confidence VS short-term sell pressure

(Source: CryptoQuant) In the QuickTake analysis released by CryptoQuant, CryptoOnChain pointed out: After ETH started to rise from the $2400 range, it is now approaching the historical strong resistance level of $4400 (this price level has historically been an important supply zone). Although momentum indicators such as MACD and buying volume maintain positive signals, approaching the resistance level still carries short-term selling pressure risks.

Key on-chain data shows a significant divergence between the overall market and mainstream CEX platforms:

• Overall ESR Continues to Decline: Since 2022, the Ethereum overall exchange supply ratio (ESR) has been steadily decreasing, currently around 0.16. This indicates that investors are continuously moving ETH out of exchanges, reducing sell-side liquidity and strengthening confidence in the long-term price of the asset.
• Mainstream CEX ESR defies the trend and rises: The ESR of mainstream CEX platforms has been steadily increasing since the beginning of 2025, currently hovering around 0.04. This localized growth indicates that some ETH holders are transferring their tokens back to mainstream CEX, possibly motivated by short-term profit-taking, arbitrage trading, or participation in platform-exclusive activities.
• Mainstream CEX Net Inflow Surge Warning: As ETH approaches the key resistance level of $4400, the net inflow of mainstream CEX exchanges has recently shown significant positive growth, indicating potential sell intentions.

ETH Price Prediction: $4400 as the Bull vs Bear Battle Watershed As of the time of writing, the trading price of Ethereum is $4230, up 4.62% in the last 24 hours, but the daily trading volume has decreased by 12.08%. Based on the current ESR data, CryptoOnChain outlines two possible scenarios:

1. Bullish Scenario: If the net inflow of mainstream CEX declines rapidly or its ESR stabilizes, ETH is expected to strongly break through the resistance level of 4400 dollars. The next target looks towards 4800 dollars and may challenge the historical high.
2. Bearish Scenario: If mainstream CEX continues to see strong inflows and the price fails to break through $4400, ETH may face a short-term correction. The potential retracement target is in the $3950~4000 support area, after which it may attempt to rise again.

Conclusion: On-chain indicator battle intensifies, Ethereum faces directional choice Ethereum breaking through $4000 demonstrates market strength, but on-chain data reveals that we are in a delicate moment. The continuous decline of the overall ESR lays the foundation for a long-term bull market, while the unusual capital flows on mainstream CEX platforms become the biggest variable in the short term. The outcome of the defense and attack at the $4400 resistance level will determine whether ETH can embark on a journey to historical highs or if it needs to retest the $4000 level to gather strength for another battle. Investors should closely monitor mainstream CEX.

On-chain data changes and key price level trading volumes to grasp the short-term market rhythm.