As of August 19, 2025, the trend of Ethereum (ETH) is showing a short-term adjustment, with the price fluctuating around $4300, and the market is relatively balanced between bulls and bears. The following is a comprehensive analysis:

1. Current Price Dynamics

· Latest quote: ETH is currently at 4294.40 USD, down 1.18% for the day.
· Short-term Fluctuation: Yesterday (August 18), ETH fell below $4300, reaching a low of $4294.40, with a 24-hour decline of 3.19%.
· Recent peak: On August 14, ETH broke through $4700, reaching a three-year high of $4732.44, but then fell back.

2. Technical Analysis

· Support level:
· Range 4350-4380: If it breaks below, it may further test 4300 or even 3995 USD.
· 4300 USD: Current key support, if lost may accelerate the decline.
· Resistance level:
· Range of 4560-4580: After breaking through, it may test 4905 or even 5745 US dollars.
· 4700-4800 USD: Previous high resistance, if regained may restart the upward trend.
· Trend Judgment:
· Short-term fluctuation downward, the Bollinger Bands are in an opening posture, the price is near the middle track, and there may be a rebound in the short term.
· The medium to long term is still in an upward channel, but we need to be wary of the risk of divergence between volume and price.

3. Market Sentiment and Capital Flow

· Institutional capital inflow: Recently, ETF inflows reached $5.4 billion, but the TVL (Total Value Locked) in the spot market decreased by 7%, indicating that some funds have flowed into the derivatives market.
· The derivatives market is active: the futures open interest has reached a new high of $60.8 billion, but nearly 90% of long positions have been liquidated, indicating an increased risk of leveraged trading.
· Macroeconomic factors affect:
· The expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut has weakened, the US dollar has strengthened, suppressing the cryptocurrency market.
· The US PPI data exceeded expectations, and inflation pressure may delay interest rate cuts, affecting market sentiment.

4. Future Outlook

· Short-term (this week): If the support at 4300 holds, it may rebound to the 4450-4500 range; if it breaks below 4300, it may drop to 3995 USD.
· Mid-term target: If it breaks through the resistance at 4905, it may challenge 5745 dollars.
· Risk warning:
· Andrew Kang warns: ETH may drop to $3200-3600, market structure is weak, which could trigger a $5 billion liquidation wave.
· If it breaks below the support at 3365, it may trigger a deeper pullback to 2965 USD.

5. Operation Suggestions

· Short-term trading:
· Short position strategy: If there is a rebound to the 4550-4610 range, you can try, stop loss at 4750, target below 4450.
· Long position strategy: If it stabilizes in the 4300-4365 range, it can be deployed, with a stop loss at 4250 and a target above 4450.
· Long-term strategy:
· Pay attention to the 4350 support level. If it stabilizes, one can accumulate on dips, targeting above 4900.
· ETF capital inflows and network upgrades (such as Pectra) remain long-term bullish factors.

Summary

ETH is currently in a fluctuation adjustment phase, and may continue to test support levels in the short term, but still has upward potential in the medium to long term. Investors need to closely monitor the support area of 4300-4380 and the resistance level of 4560-4580, and flexibly adjust strategies in conjunction with market sentiment and capital flow.