#美联储货币政策# Analyzed Goldman Sachs' forecast, the Fed may cut interest rates three times this year, with timing in September, October, and December. The main reason is the weak employment growth, with only 30,000 new jobs added per month, far below the 80,000 needed for full employment. This weakness comes not only from trade and immigration but is more due to the fading "compensatory hiring" effect. Although the unemployment rate is temporarily stable, the slowdown in the labor market has raised concerns. If the unemployment rate rises significantly, it may trigger a more substantial rate cut. Close attention needs to be paid to revisions in employment data and changes in the unemployment rate, as these will be key indicators affecting Fed policy. For the crypto market, a loosening of dollar liquidity may be favorable, but the risks of economic downturn should still be watched closely.