Ethereum (ETH) Price Approaching $3,500: Trend Analysis from a Technical Perspective
During the process of the price continuously retracing to test support, what investors are most concerned about is whether the price of Ethereum (ETH) approaching $3,500 is an opportunity for a rebound or a continuation of the downward trend. The following will break it down one by one.
Current market structure
Since the pullback from the mid-July peak, ETH has been oscillating and building strength within the $3,500- $3,600 range, with bulls and bears repeatedly battling in this area. Currently, a downward continuation right-side structure is forming on the daily chart, and it is necessary to pay attention to whether this support can effectively hold.
Interpretation of Key Technical Indicators
- Moving Average System: The ETH price has fallen below the 20-day moving average, but the MA50 and MA100 are around $3,520 and $3,480 respectively, providing mid-term support. If the price returns above the MA20 (around $3,700), bulls are expected to regain control.
- RSI: The daily RSI is currently around 42, not yet reaching the oversold zone (below 30), indicating that there is still room for downward movement, but continued consolidation may lead to a rebound.
- Trading Volume: Recent trading volume has significantly shrunk, indicating a weakening of bearish momentum. If the price drops to a key support level accompanied by an increase in trading volume, it can be regarded as a signal to go long.
On-chain data perspective
According to on-chain data observations from Glassnode, the number of active addresses and the proportion of large transactions have recently decreased by 8% and 12% respectively, indicating a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market. However, pay attention to the accumulation behavior of whale wallets in the $3,500 - $3,600 range, as this may signal positioning by large holders.
Operation strategies and practical suggestions
- Stop loss by segments: If ETH falls below $3,450, it is recommended to stop loss across the board for short positions;
- Incremental Positioning: You can gradually build positions at $3,550, $3,500, and $3,450, and add to your positions after confirming a successful pullback.
- Set target: The initial target is seen as MA20 (around $3,700). If the cycle indicator turns positive, we can further look towards $3,900;
- Combine emotional indicators: Use the Fear and Greed Index to monitor extreme market emotions and avoid chasing highs and selling lows.
By combining the above technologies with multi-dimensional on-chain elements, newcomers can also steadily position themselves, reasonably take profits and set stop losses as the price of Ethereum (ETH) approaches $3,500, grasping the market rhythm.